Orlando Market Update, September 2026: $410K Median, 4.4 Months of Supply — and Two Sources That Disagree

If you paused your home search over the summer and are picking it back up this fall, the first thing you'll notice is that the numbers don't agree with each other. The region's REALTOR® association says the median price is up about 1.9% from a year ago. Redfin says the median for the City of Orlando is down 1.2%. And mortgage rates — which many buyers assumed would keep drifting lower in 2026 — are now higher than they were a year ago.

None of those statements is wrong. They're just measuring different things. Here's what each number actually covers, where the sources disagree, and what it means if you're making a decision right now.

The headline numbers — and exactly what each one measures

From the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association's latest market report (July 2026 — the most recent month ORRA has released — covering Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake, and Volusia counties):

• Median sale price: $410,494, up from $402,655 in July 2025 — a gain of about 1.9% year over year
• Inventory: 12,043 homes on the market, down about 11% from 13,557 in July 2025
• Months of supply: 4.4, compared with 5.31 a year earlier
• Days on market: 64 on average
• Closed sales: 2,720 for the month

"July's data reflects a typical slight seasonal pullback following June's peak," said Chris Atwell, 2026 ORRA President, in the association's report. That squares with the month-to-month picture: June 2026's median was $416,308 with 2,929 closings, so July cooled slightly off the summer high.

From Redfin's City of Orlando market page (August 2026, reported as a three-month rolling average, and covering only the city limits — not the metro):

• Median sale price: $414,726, down 1.2% year over year
• Homes sold: 1,060 in August, down 3.1% from a year earlier
• Median days on market: 52, four days longer than a year ago
• Sale-to-list ratio: 97.1% — the typical home is closing a bit under asking

From Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (national average, week ending September 10, 2026):

• 30-year fixed: 6.76%, up from 6.71% the prior week — and up from 6.35% a year ago
• 15-year fixed: 6.09%, up from 6.04% the prior week and 5.50% a year ago

Why two credible sources disagree on the direction of prices

This is the most useful thing in this month's data, so it's worth being precise about.

They cover different geographies. ORRA's figures span a five-county Central Florida region with thousands of closings a month. Redfin's page covers the City of Orlando alone — roughly 1,060 August sales inside the city limits. When you read a headline that says "Orlando prices are up" or "Orlando prices are down," the first question to ask is which Orlando. Conditions in a single neighborhood or community routinely diverge from the regional average — which is why we maintain separate guides for areas like College Park, Lake Nona, and Winter Park.

They cover different time windows. ORRA's latest release is July 2026, a single month. Redfin's August figure is a three-month rolling average (roughly June through August). A one-month number is more current but noisier; a rolling average is smoother but slower to turn.

Neither proves a trend on its own. A 1.9% annual gain and a 1.2% annual decline are both small movements in a market where the ORRA regional median has ranged from $370,000 (January 2026) to $416,308 (June 2026) this year alone. What the two sources agree on matters more: sales volumes are modest, homes are taking longer to sell than during the frenzy years, and typical closings are happening at or slightly below asking.

Rates: the reversal nobody ordered

Early 2026 spoiled buyers a little. ORRA's February report cited average rates near 5.9%, and its president at the time called rates dipping toward the 5% range "an encouraging signal for buyers." Since then, the direction has flipped: Freddie Mac's September 10 release puts the 30-year average at 6.76% — about four-tenths of a point above where it stood a year ago.

What does that swing cost? On the ORRA regional median of $410,494 with 20% down (a loan of about $328,400), principal and interest at 6.76% runs roughly $2,132 a month, versus about $2,043 at last September's 6.35% average — a difference of about $89 a month, or roughly $1,070 a year, before taxes and insurance.

Two honest caveats. First, PMMS is a national average for conforming loans; the quote you're offered depends on your credit, loan type, points, and lender — Freddie Mac's own survey notes that shopping multiple lenders can save borrowers thousands. Second, nobody reliably predicts where rates go next — the people who expected 2026 to keep falling have been wrong for seven months.

Supply at 4.4 months: what "balanced" looks like in practice

Months of supply — how long it would take to sell every listed home at the current sales pace — is the cleanest single gauge of leverage. Five to six months is conventionally called a balanced market. The ORRA region's 4.4 months in July sits just below that line, down from 7.19 months in January 2026 and 5.31 months in July 2025.

Read both sides of that number:

• For sellers: inventory is about 11% lower than a year ago, which helps. But 64 average days on market and a 97.1% city sale-to-list ratio mean overpricing still gets punished with a long, quiet listing. A data-backed price matters more than it did in 2021–22 — you can start with our free home value estimate.
• For buyers: you have far more selection and negotiating room than the pandemic years, but the "buyer's market" of last winter has tightened. Waiting carried a real cost this year: the regional median rose about $40,000 between January and June 2026 while rates climbed.

Deciding this fall

We won't tell you the market is about to do anything — nobody knows, and this year's rate calls prove it. What the September data supports is narrower and more useful: the region's prices are essentially flat-to-slightly-up year over year, the city's are flat-to-slightly-down, supply is tighter than last fall, and financing costs more than it did a year ago. Whether that adds up to a good moment depends entirely on your monthly budget, your timeline, and the specific Orlando-area community you're targeting — not the regional average.

If you want the same breakdown run on your street, your price band, or your current home's likely sale price, a conversation with Bethanne Baer, Broker/Owner of Bear Team Real Estate, is free — no commitment, just the numbers as they actually apply to you.

This article is for general education and reflects market data published as of September 14, 2026, drawn from the sources linked above. Market conditions change, and figures are revised. Nothing here is financial, legal, tax, or lending advice, and no statement here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Equal Housing Opportunity.